Theories Underpinning Civil War Occurrences

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The main topic of the text is the exploration of various theories explaining the causes of civil wars. It delves into greed-based theories, where economic gain is a motivator, and grievance-based theories, which focus on social injustices and inequalities. The text also discusses the Collier-Hoeffler Model's insights, critiques of the greed vs grievance dichotomy, state fragility, and the complex interplay of societal dynamics in civil war risks.

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______-based theories claim that the desire for economic benefit, especially through managing precious resources, is a main cause for conflict.

Greed

______-based theories look at the conditions that allow conflicts to happen, such as fragile governmental institutions and the landscape that might aid rebel groups.

Opportunity

Greed-based theories key elements

Economic incentives, natural resource exploitation, e.g., oil, diamonds.

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Desolate post-battle landscape with broken and rusty rifle, cracked earth and bare trees under a cloudy sky.

Exploring the Nature of Civil Wars

Civil War battlefield with cannon and cannonballs in foreground, fallen soldiers and dead horse on brown ground and trampled grass, background of trees and smoke.

The Outbreak of the American Civil War

Civil War battlefield scene with scattered soldiers equipment, messy tents and grazing horses against background of green trees and blue sky.

Divergent Motivations in the American Civil War

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The Collier-Hoeffler Model's Insights into Civil War Onset

The Collier-Hoeffler Model, developed by economists Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, offers a quantitative analysis of civil war onset using data from 1960 to 1999. Their model indicates that a high dependence on primary commodity exports, especially oil, significantly increases the risk of civil war. The presence of a large diaspora can also heighten conflict risk due to potential financial support for rebels. Conversely, positive indicators such as higher levels of male secondary education, increased per capita income, and economic growth correlate with a lower likelihood of civil war, suggesting that socioeconomic development can deter the onset of conflicts.

Expanding the Debate: Complexities and Critiques in Civil War Studies

The binary greed versus grievance model has faced criticism for oversimplifying the complex nature of civil wars. Critics, including David Keen, argue that conflicts are driven by a combination of motives and that a nuanced approach that includes qualitative data and individual narratives is essential. Empirical challenges to the greed versus grievance theory also point to the importance of power struggles and survival strategies in the outbreak and perpetuation of civil wars.

State Fragility and the Preconditions for Insurgency

Research by political scientists James Fearon and David Laitin has emphasized the role of state weakness in creating opportunities for insurgency. They argue that factors such as poverty, political instability, challenging terrain, and large populations contribute to a state's vulnerability to civil war. Their findings suggest that both authoritarian and democratic regimes can prevent civil wars if they have the necessary financial and military resources to deter or defeat insurgent groups.

Varied Influences on Civil War Likelihood and Persistence

In addition to the primary theories, a range of other factors have been recognized as influencing the probability and recurrence of civil wars. Bargaining failures, which occur when conflicting parties cannot credibly commit to peace, can impede conflict resolution. Governance deficits, including a lack of accountability and transparency, can lead to repeated cycles of civil war. Other contributing factors include military capabilities, demographic pressures, poverty, and inequality. The passage of time since the last civil war generally decreases the risk of a new outbreak, although sustained support from diasporas can maintain insurgent activities.

Societal Dynamics and the Human Dimension in Civil War

Societal and human factors also play a critical role in the risk and dynamics of civil wars. Issues of relative deprivation, the legacies of colonialism, and gender dynamics have been linked to the propensity for civil conflict. Studies indicate that high levels of inequality and grievances stemming from colonial-era boundaries and policies can ignite civil strife. Additionally, the influence of human emotions, moral convictions, and the pursuit of social change are significant motivators for individuals to support or join insurgent movements, underscoring the complex interplay between structural conditions and personal agency in civil wars.

Theories Underpinning Civil War Occurrences

Concept Map

Summary

Outline

Theories Underpinning Civil War Occurrences

Greed-based theories

Economic gain

Exploitation of natural resources

Quest for economic gain

Grievance-based theories

Perceived injustices

Social and political factors

Resentment among disenfranchised groups

Opportunity-based theories

Enabling conditions for conflict

Weak state institutions

Geographic characteristics

The Greed and Grievance Dichotomy in Civil War Causes

Economic incentives vs. social and political factors

Identity politics vs. consequences of ethnic dominance and political exclusion

Nuanced approach

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