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Theories Underpinning Civil War Occurrences

The main topic of the text is the exploration of various theories explaining the causes of civil wars. It delves into greed-based theories, where economic gain is a motivator, and grievance-based theories, which focus on social injustices and inequalities. The text also discusses the Collier-Hoeffler Model's insights, critiques of the greed vs grievance dichotomy, state fragility, and the complex interplay of societal dynamics in civil war risks.

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1

______-based theories claim that the desire for economic benefit, especially through managing precious resources, is a main cause for conflict.

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Greed

2

______-based theories look at the conditions that allow conflicts to happen, such as fragile governmental institutions and the landscape that might aid rebel groups.

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Opportunity

3

Greed-based theories key elements

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Economic incentives, natural resource exploitation, e.g., oil, diamonds.

4

Grievance-based theories focus

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Social/political factors, ethnic dominance, political exclusion, fostering resentment.

5

Impact of identity politics in civil wars

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Less emphasized in grievance theories, overshadowed by social/political grievances.

6

The - Model, by economists ______ ______ and ______ ______, analyzes the risk factors for civil wars between ______ and ______.

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Collier-Hoeffler Paul Collier Anke Hoeffler 1960 1999

7

According to the model, a nation's heavy reliance on ______ commodity exports, like ______, can raise the chances of a civil war.

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primary oil

8

A substantial ______ abroad can increase the risk of conflict by potentially funding ______.

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diaspora rebels

9

The model suggests that higher ______ ______ education for males, greater ______ ______ income, and ______ ______ are factors that can reduce the risk of civil war.

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male secondary per capita income economic growth

10

Greed vs. Grievance Model Critic

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David Keen criticizes the binary model for oversimplifying civil war causes, advocating for a nuanced approach.

11

Empirical Challenges to Greed vs. Grievance

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Empirical evidence suggests power struggles and survival strategies are also key in civil war dynamics.

12

Political scientists ______ and ______ have highlighted state fragility as a catalyst for insurgencies.

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James Fearon David Laitin

13

Fearon and Laitin's studies indicate that both ______ and ______ governments can avert civil wars with adequate ______ and ______ capabilities.

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authoritarian democratic financial military

14

Bargaining failures in conflict resolution

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Occurs when parties can't commit credibly to peace, hindering the end of civil wars.

15

Impact of governance deficits on civil wars

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Lack of accountability and transparency in governance can lead to repeated civil war cycles.

16

Role of diasporas in sustaining insurgencies

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Diaspora support can prolong insurgent activities, affecting the risk of civil war recurrence.

17

High levels of ______ and issues from ______-era boundaries may lead to ______ conflict.

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inequality colonial civil

18

The legacies of ______ and ______ dynamics contribute to the likelihood of ______ wars.

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colonialism gender civil

19

Emotions, moral ______, and the drive for social ______ can motivate people to support or join ______ movements.

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convictions change insurgent

20

The complex relationship between structural ______ and personal ______ is highlighted in the context of ______ wars.

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conditions agency civil

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Theories Underpinning Civil War Occurrences

Civil wars are multifaceted conflicts influenced by a variety of factors. Scholars have identified several key theories to explain the occurrence of civil wars. Greed-based theories suggest that the quest for economic gain, particularly through the control of valuable resources, is a primary motivator for conflict. Grievance-based theories argue that civil wars arise as a reaction to perceived injustices, including social, economic, or political inequalities and discrimination. Opportunity-based theories consider the enabling conditions for conflict, such as weak state institutions, the availability of resources to fund insurgencies, and geographic characteristics that may facilitate rebel operations.
Conflict-ravaged cityscape, with destroyed brick wall in the foreground and burned vehicle on deserted road, bare trees and gray sky.

The Greed and Grievance Dichotomy in Civil War Causes

The greed versus grievance debate is a cornerstone in the study of civil war causation. Proponents of greed-based theories highlight the role of economic incentives and the exploitation of natural resources, such as oil and diamonds, in driving conflicts. In contrast, grievance-based theories focus on social and political factors, suggesting that civil wars are less about identity politics and more about the consequences of ethnic dominance and political exclusion, which can foster resentment among disenfranchised groups.

The Collier-Hoeffler Model's Insights into Civil War Onset

The Collier-Hoeffler Model, developed by economists Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, offers a quantitative analysis of civil war onset using data from 1960 to 1999. Their model indicates that a high dependence on primary commodity exports, especially oil, significantly increases the risk of civil war. The presence of a large diaspora can also heighten conflict risk due to potential financial support for rebels. Conversely, positive indicators such as higher levels of male secondary education, increased per capita income, and economic growth correlate with a lower likelihood of civil war, suggesting that socioeconomic development can deter the onset of conflicts.

Expanding the Debate: Complexities and Critiques in Civil War Studies

The binary greed versus grievance model has faced criticism for oversimplifying the complex nature of civil wars. Critics, including David Keen, argue that conflicts are driven by a combination of motives and that a nuanced approach that includes qualitative data and individual narratives is essential. Empirical challenges to the greed versus grievance theory also point to the importance of power struggles and survival strategies in the outbreak and perpetuation of civil wars.

State Fragility and the Preconditions for Insurgency

Research by political scientists James Fearon and David Laitin has emphasized the role of state weakness in creating opportunities for insurgency. They argue that factors such as poverty, political instability, challenging terrain, and large populations contribute to a state's vulnerability to civil war. Their findings suggest that both authoritarian and democratic regimes can prevent civil wars if they have the necessary financial and military resources to deter or defeat insurgent groups.

Varied Influences on Civil War Likelihood and Persistence

In addition to the primary theories, a range of other factors have been recognized as influencing the probability and recurrence of civil wars. Bargaining failures, which occur when conflicting parties cannot credibly commit to peace, can impede conflict resolution. Governance deficits, including a lack of accountability and transparency, can lead to repeated cycles of civil war. Other contributing factors include military capabilities, demographic pressures, poverty, and inequality. The passage of time since the last civil war generally decreases the risk of a new outbreak, although sustained support from diasporas can maintain insurgent activities.

Societal Dynamics and the Human Dimension in Civil War

Societal and human factors also play a critical role in the risk and dynamics of civil wars. Issues of relative deprivation, the legacies of colonialism, and gender dynamics have been linked to the propensity for civil conflict. Studies indicate that high levels of inequality and grievances stemming from colonial-era boundaries and policies can ignite civil strife. Additionally, the influence of human emotions, moral convictions, and the pursuit of social change are significant motivators for individuals to support or join insurgent movements, underscoring the complex interplay between structural conditions and personal agency in civil wars.